The US Army Corps of Engineers recently held its annual public meetings to provide flood outlooks along the Missouri River.
John Remus is chief of the Corps? Missouri River Basin Water Management Division. He says a dry year in 2020 has left the river in good shape when it comes to flood conditions in 2021.
“We have shifted our management focus from evacuation of floodwater to meeting downstream flow targets,” said Remus. “However, I want to assure everyone in the basin that the Corps remains fully committed to our flood risk reduction mission, protecting stakeholders when we can from significant hydrologic events that pose a threat to human health and safety.”
Kevin Low is a hydrologist with the National Weather Service?s Missouri Basin River Forecast Center in Kansas City. He says soils remain dry throughout the basin, meaning they can absorb more snowmelt in the coming spring.
“Going into with winter with dry soils does help to prevent a deeply frozen ground condition,” said Low. “Frozen ground doesn’t allow snowmelt or rainfall to penetrate the soil column. If the soils are dry, the soil temperature can freeze, but there’s not the moisture in place from the Fall to cause the soil to act like concrete. Overall, that’s a good thing for us.”
Doug Kluck is a regional director in the NOAA Climate Services Division. He says we are entering a La Nina weather pattern, which has an impact on the basin.
“For the Missouri Basin, colder than normal conditions for upper basin are more common than not, and sometimes wetter conditions — although it doesn’t show it very well — slip into Montana and sometimes further east,” said Kluck. “Further south — across the southern part of the U.S. — it’s all dry and usually warmer for the most part. Basically, from Colorado all the way coast-to-coast, with the exception of the Ohio River basin.”
Despite the favorable conditions entering 2021, the Corps warns that system conditions remain primarily driven by runoff, especially from tributaries below Gavins Point Dam.
