Soybean prices remain strong, but a University of Illinois economist encourages farmers not to get overly optimistic about current prices.
United States soybean exports remain strong late into the calendar. Those numbers remain strong even with Brazil?s enormous soybean harvest this year. University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Todd Hubbs spoke in regard to strong soybean exports in the United States. Hubbs said while strong soybean exports were not expected, the strong numbers serve as a positive sign.
?Having said that, we?re still looking at 89.5 million acres of soybeans, with an undetermined yield right now. If it hits a trend of about 48, it?s going to be a huge crop,? Hubbs said.
Hubbs watches supply and demand functions of the commodity markets, and understands why traders built a weather premium into the soybean market. However, Hubbs says domestic crush in the future has not been up to snuff, even with strong exports. That having been said, Hubbs expects ending stocks to build into next fall, in the United States. Hubbs said it also appears as though farmers in South America will plant more soybeans in the upcoming season.
?It looks like, going into the ?18 marketing era, Brazil is looking to plant more beans and less corn, onto what they have already done. This is all downward pressure on soybean prices,? Hubbs said.
Given Hubbs? analysis, soybeans are a crop made or broken during the month of August, in the United States, and weather will be the most probable determining factor over the next six to eight weeks.
