Most analysts were predicting a modest WASDE report today, but several surprises caused opposite reactions in the corn and soybean markets. The biggest surprise was in the corn, where the USDA increased its corn yield estimate to 188.8 bushels per acre. Allendale commodity broker Greg McBride said this was very bearish news.
This month’s corn outlook had projected beginning stocks for 2025/26 35 million bushels lower, based on a slightly higher use forecast for 2024/25. Corn production for 2025/26 is forecast at a record 16.7 billion bushels, up an even 1 billion from last month with a 1.9-million acre increase in harvested area and higher yield.
McBride said the adjustments to the corn usage numbers helped soften the blow a little bit.
On the soybean side of things, beginning stocks were lowered 20 million bushels on an increase to crush and exports in the prior marketing year. Soybean production for 2025/26 is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million from July. Harvested area is forecast at 80.1 million acres, down 2.4 million from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 53.6 bushels per acre is up 1.1 bushels from last month. With lower supply and the slow pace of export sales to date, exports were reduced by 40 million bushels. Crush is unchanged at 2.54 billion bushels. U.S. ending stocks are forecast at 290 million bushels, down 20 million from last month.
While these numbers are surprising compared to most estimates, McBride said the USDA likely made these changes based on observations they made from satellite imagery.
The next major report on crop conditions will come from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, which starts next week, and the Allendale Acreage Survey. McBride said the results will probably reinforce the adjustments that the USDA made.
The team at Allendale can be reached by calling 800-262-7538, or you can visit allendale-inc.com.
