Most of the crops in Iowa are in the ground at this point, so many farmers are keeping a close eye on the weather and praying for some “million-dollar rain.” To get a clearer picture of what the large-scale weather patterns will look like in the U.S., many analysts turn to the current phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO cycle is characterized by two distinct phases: El Niño, the warm phase, and La Niña, the cool phase. Dr. Justin Glisan, state climatologist for Iowa, says we are actually in between those phases at ENSO-neutral right now.
While the phase of the ENSO cycle can sometimes offer a glimpse of what to expect for the weather, Glisan said that it doesn’t work as well for the middle of the growing season since most of the precipitation during the summer is delivered via unpredictable thunderstorms.
Since we are in a long-term pattern of dry soil conditions over the past few years, Glisan said the forecasted rain for this week- including the generous amount much of the state received last night- will be critical to keep drought conditions from returning to Iowa.
For more information, visit iowaagriculture.gov/climatology-bureau.
