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To hear Ken’s Money Matters report on Friday’s USDA crop production report, click here.
The USDA crop production report out Friday showed a record harvest of both corn and soybeans, yet the market moved higher. The reason appears to be demand: exports, livestock feed, and ethanol, though ethanol seems to be the least secure in 2014.
| USDA Crop Production 2013 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| USDA November Report | USDA September Report | ||
| 2013 USDA Total Production, corn | 13.989 bbu | 13.843 bbu | |
| 2013 USDA Average Yield, corn | 160.4 bpa | 155.3 bpa | |
| 2013 USDA Harvested Acres, Corn | 87.2 ma | 89.1 ma | |
| 2013 USDA Ending Stocks, corn | 1.887 bbu | 1.855 bbu | |
| 2013 USDA Total Production, soybeans | 3.258 bbu | 3.149 bbu | |
| 2013 USDA Average Yield, soybeans | 43.0 bpa | 41.2 bpa | |
| 2013 USDA Harvested Acres, soybeans | 75.7 ma | 76.4 ma | |
| 2013 USDA Ending Stocks, soybeans | 177 mbu | 150 mbu | |
The National Agricultural Statistics Service estimates farmers will bring in a 14-billion bushel crop of corn and nearly 3.5 billion bushels of soybeans. After a 60-day absence, the crop production report out Friday finally showed updated projected supply and demand numbers. Market Analyst Rich Balvanz with AMS commodities says it may also show an end to the falling price of corn.
We would have to say the carryover estimate on corn was not as burdensome as the trade was worried that it might be.
So from this point forward, it’s just a question of: ‘Does demand continue at the extremely robust pace that we’ve been experiencing, or does it begin to back off?’
If it continues as it has been, we maybe have a bottom in the market for the season.
Read the full November crop production report on USDA’s website as a .pdf file by clicking here.
The ethanol industry is praising farmers for such a big harvest in such a tough year; Renewable Fuels Association president and CEO Bob Dinneen says high harvest figures are a testament to the productivity and technology in modern farming, but laments lobbying in Washington D.C. that would drive the price of corn into the $2 range. Dineen believes the RFS will be the key to cellulosic ethanol plants going into production in 2014.
