Unfavorable weather conditions are continuing to cause soybean production numbers in South America to dwindle.
Dr. Michael Cordonnier, an agronomist with Soybean and Corn Advisor, Inc., said that some fields are too wet, while others are too dry. The dry weather has been particularly problematic for Argentina, especially as the country?s corn and soybean crops hit a critical growth point.
?My biggest change this week was for Argentina, and I lowered the soybeans three million tons to 45 (MMT),? Dr. Cordonnier said. ?I have a lower bias. In the drier areas of Argentina, like sort of central-northern and eastern areas, temperatures were really hot last week; they were over 100 degrees. Now, temperatures are going to cool off this week to a little bit above normal, but it’s below normal rainfall for this week as well. Now the soybeans in Argentina are 81 percent planted, 30 percent are flowering. And the corn is 70 percent planted, and about 50 percent of the first crop of corn is pollinated. So, both crops in Argentina are now entering their critical reproductive phase, and the forecast is very worrisome.?
While Argentina is dealing with dry conditions, Brazil is on the other end of the weather spectrum, which could cause the soybean crop to take a big hit from moldy seeds.
?Some areas of central Brazil, they haven’t seen the sun in over 60 days,? Dr. Cordonnier said. ?It has been constant overcast and cloudy with off-and-on rain. There are already reports of seed sprouting in the pod. Now, this is going to get more important in about a week or two because, right now, just a few fields are mature, but, over the next one to two weeks, more soybeans become mature, and you’re gonna need some drier weather, or we?re gonna have some delays in getting the first soybeans harvested in Brazil.?
While South America?s challenges are unfortunate, they should push U.S. soybean prices higher as the market takes note of the issues.
?Oh yes, absolutely,? Dr. Cordonnier said. ?And the market was not very in tune with it before Christmas, but now it’s getting more in touch with the problems of South America. Before, we’ve just worried about Brazil, but now we?ve got to worry about Argentina as well. You know Argentina, for like two months, were getting just in time rain, just enough to keep things okay, but now, maybe their luck has run out.?
Dr. Cordonnier added that the South American soybean loss will likely mean more export opportunities for U.S. soy in the months ahead.
