The USDA?s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the Prospective Plantings report and the quarterly Grain Stocks report on Thursday.
If you were watching the markets at eleven o’clock this morning, then you saw the grain prices jump all over the place as the ag marketplace reacted to both reports. Allendale commodity broker Greg McBride told the IARN that there were a few surprises in the Prospective Plantings report. More specifically, the corn acres were shockingly low.
In the Prospective Plantings report, we saw that corn growers intend to plant 89.5 million acres in 2022, which is down 4% from last year. Acreage decreases from last year of 200,000 or more are expected in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. Record high acreage is expected in Nevada and South Dakota, and record low acreage is expected in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island.
In reaction, we saw corn prices rocket upwards, but soybeans started falling off a cliff. However, McBride said that fits the seasonal pattern for soybeans. On top of that, it?s not like the soybean prices are bad now. They just fell down from the almost historically high prices that we?ve grown used to seeing lately. There?s also a lot of time still for things to develop. McBride pointed out that we almost never see the same acreage numbers come June or when we actually get the crop harvested.
As for the quarterly Grain Stocks report, most of the numbers were slightly to either side of neutral. McBride said there?s probably not much there to move the market prices significantly.
Some key findings from the report:
- Corn stocks totaled 7.85 billion bushels, up 2% from the same time last year. On-farm corn stocks were up 1% from a year ago, while off-farm stocks were up 3%.
- Soybeans stored totaled 1.93 billion bushels, up 24% from March 1, 2021. On-farm soybean stocks were up 26% from a year ago, while off-farm stocks were up 22%.
Now, what can we expect to see in the market prices as a result of both of these reports? Well, it?ll mostly be what we?ve been seeing for over a month now: intense volatility. Believe it or not, the full consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have yet to come, so the best ability for the remainder of this crop season will be adaptability.
Of course, there?s still some potential to make some profits. There?s an immense amount of risk, but McBride said they can still work with almost any ag marketing situation.
The team at Allendale can be reached by calling 800-262-7538, or you can visit allendale-inc.com.
