Summer weather patterns remain difficult to predict heading into the heart of the growing season, but USDA Chief Meteorologist Brad Rippey says current forecast models continue pointing toward ongoing drought concerns across much of the western United States.
Speaking during a weather briefing in Washington, D.C., Rippey said forecasters are currently caught between fading La Niña conditions and the expected development of El Niño later this year.
Rippey, who authors the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor and contributes weather analysis to the USDA’s monthly WASDE report, said that uncertainty is creating a lower confidence summer forecast overall. However, he said many models continue showing a ridge of high pressure developing across the western U.S. during the core of the growing season.
Rippey discusses the summer weather outlook and the possibility of drought lingering across much of the western half of the country.
He said the outlook appears somewhat more favorable farther east, including portions of the Midwest. Rippey also noted that a strengthening El Niño pattern could help fuel an active monsoon season in parts of the Southwest later this summer.
Rippey says forecast models continue pointing toward hotter and drier conditions across portions of the western United States this summer.
Rippey also warned that wildfire concerns remain elevated across parts of the West due to low snowpack and ongoing dryness. He said portions of Northern California and the Pacific Northwest could see wildfire activity develop earlier than normal this year.
Rippey discusses wildfire concerns and ongoing drought forecasts for the western United States.
Looking further ahead, Rippey said El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen later this year and could begin influencing weather patterns during harvest season and into the winter months. He added that the Midwest currently appears more likely to avoid some of the extreme summer heat expected farther west.
