The USDA forecasted the agricultural trade deficit to increase sharply to a record $42.5 billion in the coming fiscal year. That compares to $30.5 billion this fiscal year, which ends September 30. The widening trade gap, a source of frustration for many farmers and ag-state lawmakers, reflects an expected $8 billion increase in agricultural imports in fiscal year 2025 to $212 billion and a $4 billion drop in exports to $169.5 billion. The decline is primarily driven by lower corn, soybean, and cotton prices, as well as lower volumes of beef. Horticultural exports are projected to rise by $1.2 billion to a record $41.5 billion due to higher exports across all categories. Ethanol exports are forecast at $4.3 billion, unchanged from the revised FY 2024 projection. Agricultural exports to Mexico are forecast at $29.2 billion, $100 million below the prior fiscal year. Exports to Canada are unchanged at $28.9 billion.
USDA forecasts an increasing trade deficit in 2025
