If you have read this headline, and are wondering if I am going to be bashing the Weekly Drought Monitor, that answer is a resounding no. The drought monitor is still very accurate information that gives a snapshot of how we are doing with ground moisture and weighing the conditions against the upcoming forecast. What it isn’t is a crop yield forecaster, nor should it really be considered one.
Many people have started using that drought monitor as a tool to tell what the conditions are of our crops. According to Dave Widman, Economist at Agricultural Economic Insights, that is not an accurate gauge of how our crop is developing. It should only be used to understand the crop growing conditions and what could be a problem for us in the near future.
AEI conducted a recent survey to see how the drought monitor’s findings are in relation to the crop conditions we saw.
AEI has put forth a model that takes many more variables into account to predict more accurately what the crop yield potential will be at the same snapshot in time. Again, this is not to say that the information gained from the weekly drought monitor isn’t accurate, it is just not a tool we should be using to gauge our yields. There are too many more variables at stake.
AEI came up with a corn yield of 184.8 bushels an acre, higher than the current USDA prediction of 173.8. The soybean model predicted 53.6 bushels per acre, well above the current USDA yield prediction of 50.1 bushels.
For more information, go to aei.ag.
