We are unofficially halfway through the growing season, and we will be harvesting before we know it. Before we start, there are a few decisions that must be made. One is dealing with any old crop grain you still have in the bin. The quarterly grain stocks report at the end of last month showed higher-than-expected carryout for 2023 grains. Even more striking was how much the USDA believed is still sitting in the bins across the country.
On Thursday’s episode of Ag Matters PM, AgMarket.Net Hedging Strategist Kaden Sweeney talked about the situation we are finding ourselves in with farmers who have been reluctant to sell. We started by discussing the soybean basis bids that spiked the past few days across the Midwest. Sweeney says while this is a normal trend for those prices to rise this time of year, the spike shows how much elevators are trying to coax soybeans from farmers.
Sweeney believes many farmers are holding out hope that there may be a spike in old crop bean prices before harvest. It sometimes happens right as harvest kicks off. However, he believes that farmers who are holding on to grain might be “playing with fire.”
Sweeney says that it is rare that we see our contract highs right at harvest time, but that’s what happened with the 23 crop. Sweeney says that some farmers are still opting to play the trend, but they may have to really think about when they can’t wait any longer.
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