We are a week removed from the Presidential election, and President-Elect Trump is already assembling his teams for the transfer of power in January. One of the things the American and Global economies will be paying close attention to is whether Trump follows through on his plans to add tariffs across the board for all imported products, for a start, and more precise tariffs as well.
This could be concerning for agriculture because of how much we rely on foreign products to grow our crops, especially when it comes to things like fertilizers. We already have a tariff on imported fertilizers, and in the first Trump Administration, there was a 25 percent tariff on fertilizers coming in from China which also remains in place. The Biden Administration implemented a 20 percent tariff on Russian and Moroccan fertilizers.
Josh Linville analyzes the fertilizer marketplace for StoneX and said that if the second Trump Administration adds their 10 percent across-the-board tariffs, it means even higher prices for farmers.
Linville highlights the situation with fertilizers coming from Russia.
According to USDA, the cost of phosphate fertilizer increased by 93%. The U.S. fertilizer market would not be affected by President Trump’s campaign pledge to impose a 60 percent tariff on incoming goods from China because that flow has already ceased. However, he claims that a wider trade war involving all imported goods from all nations would become problematic.
Putting tariffs aside, the StoneX analyst is already worried about the urea supply and believes that the limited supply may raise the cost of all nitrogen fertilizers into the upcoming spring.
