Climate scientists at Agriculture Canada labs have been developing an artificial intelligence program over the past couple of years. They can now apply their AI program to real-world conditions as severe drought continues to plague parts of the Prairies and Great Plains states.
Drought monitor programs have been around for decades, but they only provide current weather events and conditions. Trevor Hadwen, a climate specialist at Agriculture Canada?s research lab, said their program, called Drought Outlook, is designed to forecast drought conditions and look 30 days into the future.
?We?re looking at 21 different model-forecasts for our Drought Outlook,? Hadwen said. ?We look at a variety of forecast tools from Environment and Climate Change Canada, and from around the world. Those models are all thrown together and utilize the most likely scenario from the 21 models. It?s a fairly complex model, looking at how droughts develop and how rain and moisture levels affect those droughts into the future.?
Hadwen said that, while the U.S. and other countries do have forecasting services for droughts and other severe weather, the belief is that Canada?s Drought Outlook is the most advanced.
?Right now, the United States? is the most similar to ours; however, this is one big difference,? Hadwen said. ?The US looks at conditions from the US Drought Monitor, then applies a group of meteorologists to that drought, looking at a wide variety of things, directly from expert interpretation. We?ve tried to take that expert interpretation and model it. The model continuously learns from itself, looking at different aspects of drought and including them. We?re certainly not done with the development of this, this is stage one.?
Saskatchewan and Manitoba are currently the driest regions in western Canada. Hadwen gave a report on the Drought Outlook program?s 30 day forecast for the area.
?Drought Outlook is looking at some improvement in the southern portion of Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Some drought removal in some of the northern regions, especially in Saskatchewan. And drought staying the same throughout much of central and northern agricultural regions of Manitoba.?
Agriculture Canada’s research lab is based in Regina, Saskatchewan.
